Armenia is exploring the purchase of Indian Su-30MKIs to bolster its defense, a strategic move marking a shift in its military alliances.

Armenia, frustrated by incomplete deliveries of Russian weapons, is negotiating with India to purchase Su-30MKI fighters. This partnership would enable Armenia to acquire between eight and twelve aircraft, thereby strengthening its air defense and diversifying its military alliances. At the same time, Armenia is developing defense partnerships with Western countries such as France, marking a strategic turning point in its security relations in Eurasia.

Armenia and India: towards closer military cooperation

Armenia recently began talks with Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL) to acquire Su-30MKI fighters, an Indian version of the Russian Su-30SM. This multi-role fighter, produced under Russian license, features advanced maneuverability and firepower capabilities, tailored to Armenia’s needs to strengthen its air defense.

At the same time, Armenia is planning to modernize its existing Su-30SM with HAL’s assistance. This modernization could include upgrades to avionics systems, electronic warfare and new armaments. These additions would be essential to improve the capability of Armenia’s Su-30SMs, currently limited by ammunition problems. Such a move would enable Armenia to develop a more effective air defense in the face of regional tensions, notably with Azerbaijan.

The geopolitical context of the Armenian-Indian negotiations

The choice of India for this military reinforcement is not insignificant. Since 2019, Armenia has depended on Russian supplies, but delivery delays and incomplete equipment, such as the lack of ammunition for the Su-30SM, have drawn criticism. The acquisition of Su-30MKI fighters could symbolize a gradual move away from military dependence on Russia.

India, for its part, is interested in strengthening its defense relations with Armenia as part of its strategy to extend its influence in Eurasia. By selling these aircraft, it is sending out a strong geopolitical signal aimed at countering Russian and Chinese influence in the Caucasus region. If the deal goes ahead, it would confirm India as an emerging military player, strengthening its position in the global armaments market.

Economic and industrial impact for India

For HAL, the potential contract with Armenia represents a major economic opportunity, valued at between 500 million and 750 million euros, depending on the negotiations and adjustments required. This contract would consolidate HAL’s position in the arms export market, enabling India to increase its international sales in the defense sector. In 2022, Indian military exports reached around €1.5 billion**, and the Armenian market could reinforce this momentum.

The acquisition of the Su-30MKI would also include the training of Armenian pilots and technicians, provided by HAL. These investments in human resources contribute to Armenia’s operational independence, reducing its long-term dependence on Russian maintenance services.

The role of France and other partners in Armenian diversification

In addition to India, Armenia signed a 300 million euros agreement with France in October 2023, including the delivery of radar systems and VAB MK3 armored vehicles to modernize its defense infrastructure. This agreement is Armenia’s first major partnership with a Western country in the defense sector, marking a diversification of its military procurement sources.

The addition of anti-drone systems at an estimated cost of 41 million euros reinforces this defense strategy, aimed at responding to growing regional threats. By opening up to European suppliers, Armenia can also benefit from technical training, supporting its military reorganization objectives.

Geopolitical repercussions for Russia

This military diversification could provoke political reactions from Russia, Armenia’s historic partner in the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO). Russia’s loss of military exclusivity in Armenia would potentially weaken its presence in the Caucasus, a region considered crucial to its security policy.

Russia has often offered tariff advantages to Armenia for arms sales, but the rise of partnerships such as those with India and France could lead Moscow to reassess its military and economic commitments. Analyst Alexey Leonkov points out that the choice of non-Russian equipment could affect the effectiveness of Armenia’s Su-30s if they do not receive the technical support initially planned.

Consequences for the regional balance of power

If Armenia finalizes the purchase of 8 to 12 Su-30MKI, it could strengthen its deterrent potential vis-à-vis its neighbors, particularly in the context of tensions with Azerbaijan. This reinforcement in terms of equipment and training with multiple allies could thus rebalance regional forces, limiting unilateral dependencies.

The gradual integration of diversified suppliers would enable Armenia to meet growing security requirements, a priority in the face of rising border tensions. In sum, the defense partnerships underway could well usher in a new era of military cooperation in Eurasia, with far-reaching strategic implications for regional security relations.

We offer a fighter jet experience in France – come fly with us! And you can even take the controls!