The US defense industry is struggling to keep pace with the rise of China’s military power. Analysis of the industrial stakes and key figures.

China’s rise to military power is undeniable. Although the Chinese economy has its weaknesses, its defense sector is growing rapidly, with massive investment in the production of ships, aircraft and missiles. Faced with this situation, the United States is finding it difficult to respond to China’s growing military capacity, not least because of its declining defense industrial base. The gap between the two powers is widening, and the United States must act quickly to modernize its industry and close the gap. Concrete actions are needed to prevent China from gaining the upper hand in a possible military conflict.

1. The expansion of China’s defense industry: figures and challenges

Over the past decade, China has considerably strengthened its defense industry, thanks in particular to the rise of state-owned enterprises such as the Aviation Industry Corporation of China and the China State Shipbuilding Corporation. These companies have propelled China to world leadership in several sectors, including shipbuilding. By comparison, the USA has lost ground. In figures, China’s production capacity far exceeds that of its rivals:

• Chinese shipbuilding is some 230 times larger than that of the USA. Between 2021 and 2024, China will have produced 20 large warships and over 400 modern fighter jets.
• China has 5 companies in the world’s top 12 defense companies, whereas ten years ago, none were present in this ranking.
• Chinese military production is growing at a rate 5 to 6 times faster than that of the United States.

Consequences: This rise in power augurs a strategic imbalance. The United States risks losing its military advantage in the Indo-Pacific region, especially in protracted conflicts where industrial capacity plays a decisive role.

2. China’s military technological advances

China has made great strides in the field of military technology, thanks in particular to its more efficient research, development and acquisition process. The country now produces advanced platforms in complex fields such as airborne aviation and propulsion systems. Here are some key figures:

• China’s naval fleet is now the largest in the world, with vessels such as the aircraft carrier Fujian, capable of deploying up to 70 aircraft.
• In 2023, China carried out 67 space launches, an all-time record.
• Chinese companies, like Norinco, are developing increasingly sophisticated drones, such as the kamikaze drone with a range of 200 km.

Consequences: China’s technological progress enables it to maintain a lead over the United States in several strategic areas, particularly in space technologies and drones. In the event of conflict, this could give Beijing a decisive advantage in critical areas such as the South China Sea.

3. Modernizing China’s nuclear arsenal

The development of China’s nuclear arsenal represents another facet of the country’s rise to military power. China’s number of operational nuclear warheads is expanding rapidly:

• In 2019, China had 200 nuclear warheads. It is expected to exceed 1,000 by 2030.
• In 2021, China launched more ballistic missiles for testing and training than all other countries combined.

Companies such as China Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation and China Aerospace Science and Industry Corporation have expanded their production capacities by hiring more staff. China is also developing hypersonic missiles, such as the DF-17, capable of reaching American bases in the Western Pacific.

Consequences: China’s growing nuclear power and hypersonic capabilities pose a serious threat to US interests in the Asia-Pacific region. This increases the risk of a nuclear arms race in the region.

4. The decline of the US defense industrial base

Unlike China, the USA is struggling to modernize its defense industrial base, putting it at a disadvantage in the event of a protracted conflict. Here are some of the major problems:

• The US procurement and contracting system is obsolete. According to a 2009 report, major defense programs take more than 10 years to deliver, often costing 2 to 3 times more than expected.
• The U.S. supply chain is fragile, with shortages in critical components such as solid rocket motors and electronics.
• In 2024, the first Constellation frigate will arrive at least a year late, due to a shortage of skilled workers in shipyards.

Consequences: The lack of flexibility and production capacity in the USA could prevent an adequate response to a conflict with China, particularly if it were to last. The delay in the production of critical ships and armaments weakens Washington’s position in the Pacific.

5. Solutions for revitalizing the US defense industry

To bridge this widening gap, the United States must take immediate steps to modernize its defense industrial base. Here are a few avenues for action:

• Procurement reform: The Department of Defense must shorten contracting times and favor innovative companies.
• Shipbuilding subsidies: Restore subsidies to encourage investment in commercial shipyards and strengthen the U.S. shipbuilding industry.
• Investment in training: Congress and the Pentagon should fund programs to train a new generation of skilled workers in essential fields such as engineering and metallurgy.

Consequences: An ambitious modernization effort could enable the U.S. to rival China in military production, but this will require rapid structural change and substantial investment in industrial and human capabilities.

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