European rearmament has revived competition between the Rafale, the Gripen and the Eurofighter. Technical and strategic analysis of the fighter aircraft market.

European rearmament is a budgetary and operational reality. The invasion of Ukraine has had a lasting shock effect. Germany has announced 100 billion euros for its armed forces. Poland has committed more than 45 billion euros to massive acquisitions. The Baltic States, Finland, the Netherlands and Spain are revising their capacity targets upwards. This dynamic opens up a market estimated at more than 250 billion euros by 2035. At the heart of this expenditure is the multirole fighter aircraft. Three European aircraft are vying for these investments: the Dassault Rafale, the Saab Gripen E/F and the Eurofighter Typhoon. Behind these choices lie very different industrial, strategic and diplomatic rationales. This context requires an unfiltered examination of value for money, performance, NATO compatibility, but also the intersecting political interests that condition purchases. European armaments are not immune to power struggles and technological dependencies. The market will be neither homogeneous nor rational. It will be fragmented, opportunistic and often political.

The Rafale: a rise in export power, but at a high cost

The Dassault Rafale has clearly changed status since 2015. Long confined to the French forces alone, it has attracted major customers: Egypt (54 units), India (36 units), Qatar (36), Greece (24), Croatia (12), United Arab Emirates (80). The contract with Abu Dhabi is worth 16 billion euros, or 200 million euros per aircraft, including armament and maintenance.

For French manufacturers, this success is based on complete integration: airframe, engines (Safran M88), radar (Thales RBE2 AESA), electronic warfare (SPECTRA), armament (MBDA). No subsystem depends on the United States. This level of autonomy appeals to certain countries. But the unit price of the unarmed Rafale exceeds 100 million euros, making it an expensive aircraft for medium-sized armies.

In Europe, only Greece and Croatia have ordered it. Germany, Spain, Italy, Belgium, Finland and Poland have ruled out the Rafale, preferring the F-35 or the Eurofighter. The Rafale also suffers from a delay in its NATO connectivity, although efforts are underway on the F4 standard (L16 and L22 links, data processing, joint communications).

Militarily, the Rafale is a balanced aircraft: 1,800 km range in low-altitude penetration, 9,500 kg payload, dual nuclear and conventional capability, superiority in medium-range interception. But in a context of budgetary competition, its price remains a hindrance for armies seeking a good capacity/cost ratio. European armies will not all be buying top-of-the-range equipment.

The Eurofighter Typhoon: a divided program, but advanced NATO integration

The Eurofighter Typhoon, co-produced by Airbus, BAE Systems and Leonardo, remains a central player. It is used by Germany, Italy, Spain, the United Kingdom and Austria, as well as Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Oman and Kuwait. More than 570 aircraft are in service in 9 countries, with production set to continue until 2030.

The Eurofighter has strong institutional support from NATO. It is fully interoperable with American systems and uses Litening pods and Meteor, Storm Shadow and Brimstone missiles. It is also suitable for air defense, with AESA radars (CAPTOR-E) currently being standardized. It exceeds Mach 2, has a range of 1,390 km, and can carry up to 7,500 kg of weapons.

On an industrial level, the Eurofighter suffers from its four-way governance. Each modernization involves industrial compromises, which slows down developments. The PIRATE IRST remains inferior to that of the Rafale, and electronic warfare still depends on scattered sensors, less integrated than SPECTRA. Delays in the CAPTOR-E radar have hampered several export campaigns.

In terms of price, the last batches sold are around 95 to 110 million euros each without armament. It is cheaper than the Rafale, but has higher maintenance costs. The United Kingdom is pushing the P3E standard, which aims to make up for the digital shortcomings and ensure greater compatibility with the F-35. It remains a logical choice for countries that want to remain within the Anglo-American technological orbit. European armaments tend to preserve this NATO base, which favors the Eurofighter in certain cases.

The Gripen: a competitive offer for armies with limited budgets

The Saab JAS-39 Gripen E/F is the lightest of the three. Single-engine (General Electric F414G), it focuses on versatility with reduced costs. The unit price of the Gripen E is estimated at 60 to 70 million euros, with operating costs of less than 4,000 euros per flight hour, compared with 15,000 for the Rafale and 18,000 for the Eurofighter.

It is equipped with an AESA Raven ES-05 radar, a new-generation passive electronic warfare system, an advanced datalink and standard Western weapons (Meteor, IRIS-T, GBU-39). Its range is 1,500 km with refueling, and its maximum take-off weight is 16,500 kg. It can operate from secondary roads, with small ground crews.

But its market share remains low. In Europe, only Sweden uses it. Hungary and the Czech Republic use the older C/D version. The contract with Finland was lost to the F-35. Croatia preferred the Rafale. Switzerland ruled out Saab from the first evaluations. The Swedish manufacturer’s political weight is limited, and Saab suffers from a lack of diplomatic support.

However, several Central European countries are looking for a fighter aircraft that is inexpensive to operate and can be integrated into a national air defense system without excessive dependence. Saab is banking on modularity, simplified maintenance and a format adapted to territorial doctrines. If European rearmament turns towards local defense, the Gripen could become more competitive again. But American pressure and FMS funding often skew the trade-offs.

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