France has excluded the Rafale jets from its military aid package to Ukraine, citing strategic and production constraints, while opting to provide Mirage 2000-5 aircraft instead.

France has ruled out sending Rafale jets as part of its latest military aid package to Ukraine, despite discussions on the possibility. Strategic and industrial constraints influenced this decision. Rafale production capacities are limited, and sending these jets could disrupt ongoing orders for countries like India or Qatar. Instead, France will provide Ukraine with Mirage 2000-5, less advanced aircraft but useful in strengthening Ukraine’s air defense.

The French decision: a technical and strategic analysis

The announcement by Sébastien Lecornu, the French Minister of Defense, that Rafale jets will not be included in the military aid to Ukraine, reflects complex considerations. The Rafale, a fighter jet from Dassault Aviation, is a strategic military asset for France, both nationally and internationally. Production capacity for these jets is limited to approximately 1.5 aircraft per month, with the assembly lines fully occupied fulfilling existing orders.

The figures speak clearly: France has commitments to several countries, including India (36 Rafales), Qatar (36), and Egypt (30). In 2021, the United Arab Emirates signed a record contract for 80 aircraft, a deal that keeps the industry engaged until 2027. Diverting production to send Rafale jets to Ukraine could jeopardize these contracts. In terms of cost, a Rafale is valued at approximately €100 million, representing a substantial investment for both purchase and maintenance.

Sending Rafale jets could also create a strategic imbalance in the ongoing Russo-Ukrainian conflict, where airspace control remains contested. Currently, neither Russia nor Ukraine has full control of the skies, making the use of advanced fighters like the Rafale risky due to the presence of anti-aircraft defense systems, such as Russian S-400s. This situation explains the decision not to include Rafale jets in France’s aid package.

Industrial production and ongoing contracts: economic impact

The French aerospace industry, particularly Dassault Aviation, faces capacity limitations that directly influence France’s strategic decisions. The Rafale production line is fully occupied responding to the growing global demand. Since 2020, the jet has emerged as a strong competitor to the American F-35, securing firm orders from countries like Egypt, Greece, Croatia, and the United Arab Emirates. This situation has consolidated France’s position as a supplier of high-tech weaponry.

However, industrial capacity remains constrained. Delivering Rafale jets to Ukraine would have required a reorganization of production priorities, potentially leading to contractual penalties or delays for existing clients. This dynamic reflects the economic stakes for France, where arms exports account for a significant portion of revenue, reaching around €10 billion annually for the sector. In terms of market share, Dassault Aviation secures about 10% of the global fighter jet export market.

Mirage 2000-5: a strategic alternative

Instead of the Rafale, France has opted to supply Mirage 2000-5 jets to Ukraine. While less advanced than the Rafale, the Mirage 2000-5 remains a capable aircraft, enhancing Ukraine’s air capabilities in key areas like air defense and ground attack. The Mirage 2000-5 is equipped with advanced electronic warfare systems and can deploy SCALP-EG cruise missiles, which the Ukrainian military already possesses.

The cost of a Mirage 2000-5 is estimated at around €25 million, about a quarter of the price of a Rafale. In terms of performance, the Mirage 2000-5 has a limited air-to-air combat range of 60-80 kilometers, compared to 160 kilometers for the American F-16, which is also in service in the region. However, its capabilities in defending against cruise missiles and drones make the Mirage a valuable asset for Ukraine, particularly in a conflict where air defense plays a critical role.

Geopolitical and economic consequences: France faces expectations

France’s refusal to include Rafale jets in its aid to Ukraine raises questions about balancing economic and geopolitical priorities. Strategically, France must maintain its position in the military export market while addressing international pressures regarding its support for Ukraine.

From a geopolitical perspective, sending Rafale jets could have set a precedent, encouraging other nations to supply more advanced military equipment to Ukraine, potentially escalating tensions with Russia. Moreover, the risk of losing important military contracts, particularly with strategic partners like India or the UAE, likely weighed heavily in Paris’ decision-making process.

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