France backs Ukraine against Russia, promising Mirage 2000, troop training and support for a “victory” plan.

France has renewed its military support for Ukraine, stepping up troop training and equipment deliveries. With the Kyiv “victory plan”, French diplomacy supports a negotiated end to the conflict. In addition to training a brigade, France promises to send Mirage 2000s as early as 2025, and allows strikes on Russian territory with long-range weapons. Beyond military support, these efforts are aimed at consolidating an international coalition around Ukraine to limit Russian influence in Europe.

France’s military support: training troops and delivering weapons

Since the Russian invasion of February 2022, France has established itself as a major ally of Ukraine. In addition to diplomatic support, France is actively involved in military training and equipment. By November 2023, an entire brigade of Ukrainian soldiers trained in France will be operational at the front, marking a first in Europe. This brigade represents a substantial logistical and financial effort for France, estimated at several tens of millions of euros, encompassing tactical training, training in the use of modern weaponry, and military coordination.

France’s support is not limited to training. In 2025, Mirage 2000 will be delivered to Ukraine. The promise of these fighter jets underlines France’s long-term commitment, as this more complex equipment requires in-depth training for Ukrainian pilots and mechanics. This military assistance strengthens Ukraine’s air capabilities, which are crucial for resisting Russian forces, particularly in regions of intense conflict such as the Donbass and Kherson.

Kyiv’s “victory plan”: a diplomatic strategy backed by France

French military support is part of a wider diplomatic framework, linked to the “victory plan ” recently proposed by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. This plan aims to end the conflict through negotiation, by first strengthening Ukraine’s position on the ground. France, represented by Foreign Minister Jean-Noël Barrot, is committed to rallying countries around this plan.

French support for this strategy has an important diplomatic dimension. France is using its influence within the European Union and with NATO member countries to promote the plan. However, Ukraine’s membership of NATO remains conditional on an end to the conflict, a position shared by allied countries, including France, to avoid escalation.

A new military approach: authorized strikes on Russian territory

A strategic turning point has been initiated by France with the authorization for Ukraine to use long-range weapons for targeted strikes on Russian territory, a decision that modifies the framework of Western support. This choice, backed by President Emmanuel Macron, enables Kyiv to target strategic infrastructure in Russia with high-precision missiles, thus limiting Moscow’s ability to reinforce its front lines in Ukraine.

The impact of this decision is significant: it paves the way for a controlled but necessary military escalation to weaken Russia’s ability to sustain a protracted war. This strategy is accompanied by the delivery of missiles and other sophisticated weaponry supplied by France, which can be used to target key points in Russia. However, this approach could also increase tensions between France and Russia, already marked by severe economic and diplomatic sanctions since 2022.

Prisoner exchanges and war casualty management

The French minister’s visit coincides with a prisoner exchange between Ukraine and Russia, hosted by the United Arab Emirates. Some 190 soldiers**, including 95 Ukrainians, were exchanged, marking an important humanitarian operation in the context of this protracted conflict. Among the freed Ukrainians, 34 belong to the Azov regiment, the symbol of Ukrainian resistance at Mariupol and the Azovstal factory. The return of these soldiers strengthens the morale of the Ukrainian population and its armed forces.

The exchange also includes the recovery of remains: 501 bodies of Ukrainian soldiers have been repatriated in an agreement coordinated by the Ukrainian authorities. This is the largest repatriation operation since the beginning of the invasion, underlining the scale of the human losses. These humanitarian gestures, while timely, are crucial to maintaining a minimum of dialogue between the two sides and easing tensions over the POW issue.

Intensification of drone strikes and reinforcement of defences

While talks and humanitarian exchanges continue, the conflict itself is intensifying, with increased use of drones and missiles. Russia recently intercepted 16 Ukrainian drones** over the Bryansk, Rostov and Belgorod regions. At the same time, Ukraine has faced more than 100 Russian drones and missiles, many of which have been shot down by Ukrainian air defense.

These strikes testify to the growing importance of drones in this conflict, offering flexibility and lower cost than traditional missiles. The costs of drones and anti-aircraft systems are estimated at several million euros per month for each side, making this type of conflict particularly costly for public finances.

Consequences and prospects for Franco-Ukrainian relations

By increasing its military and diplomatic support, France is positioning itself as a key partner for Ukraine and strengthening its influence on the European and international stage. This alliance could change power relations in Eastern Europe, especially if the “victory plan” gains support among NATO and EU allies.

However, this commitment carries risks. France will have to manage the potential consequences of this increased support, particularly vis-à-vis Russia, which could intensify its actions against French interests in response. Nevertheless, by providing military, material and strategic support, France is helping to shape the outcome of the conflict, and this involvement could also strengthen its bilateral relations with Ukraine beyond the military framework.

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