The Middle East is becoming a testing ground for military AI, exposing civilians and states to increased risks from the uncontrolled use of autonomous weapons.

Since 2020, autonomous drones have been used on battlefields in the Middle East, signaling the arrival of artificial intelligence in regional warfare. This development is rooted in asymmetric, urban, and maritime conflicts, where AI promises precision and speed while raising serious ethical questions. Israel, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Iran, and Turkey are accelerating their militarization of AI. The lack of internal or international regulation raises fears of a widespread use of autonomous weapons, increasing the dangers for civilians and prolonging conflicts.

The Middle East, a new testing ground for military AI

The alleged strike by the Kargu-2 drone in 2020 marked a turning point in military history. According to a United Nations report, the Turkish drone attacked without direct human intervention. Although this claim remains disputed, it highlights the rapid evolution of military AI in regional conflicts.

In 2024, according to the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED), four of the 11 most extreme global conflicts will be located in the Middle East and North Africa. This region also includes six of the 16 countries classified as active war zones. These data confirm that the introduction of autonomous systems in an already unstable environment amplifies the risks.

Wars in the Middle East, often limited to asymmetric and tactical engagements, make artificial intelligence particularly attractive. For example, Turkish Bayraktar TB2 drones, used in Libya, Syria, and Azerbaijan, cost around $4 million to $5 million each, 10 times less than an F-16 fighter jet. This budgetary difference allows secondary actors to carry out precise and rapid strikes without committing large conventional forces.

The regional dynamics, combined with the growing use of AI, create an environment where strikes are more frequent, more discreet, and often without direct human validation. This mechanically increases the risk of violations of international humanitarian law, which is already poorly respected locally.

Geographical characteristics that favor the use of military AI

The Middle East has a geography that is particularly well suited to military artificial intelligence technologies. Vast deserts, arid steppes, and maritime environments simplify target detection for algorithms.

In operations in Iraq, Syria, and Yemen, the Pentagon’s Project Maven enabled US forces to quickly identify military targets in open terrain. The algorithms, optimized to recognize the silhouettes of vehicles or anti-aircraft batteries, work best in uncluttered spaces.

At sea, strategic areas such as the Strait of Bab el-Mandeb and the Strait of Hormuz are also conducive to the use of AI for threat detection. Iran and the Houthis are already using drones to disrupt maritime traffic. According to the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), more than 21 attacks by maritime drones were documented in the region between 2021 and 2023.

The combination of desert topography and congested maritime areas gives regional actors the opportunity to significantly improve their military effectiveness by using relatively basic and inexpensive autonomous systems.

The challenge of urbanization in AI warfare

The Middle East is also one of the most urbanized regions in the Arab world. Recent fighting in Aleppo, Raqqa, Mosul, and Sirte has shown that urban warfare places major constraints on traditional armies.

Military AI promises to provide solutions: rapid enemy recognition in complex environments, detection of traps, and continuous surveillance using autonomous robots. For example, the deployment of micro-drones capable of navigating urban ruins reduces the risk to troops.

However, urbanization complicates the task of algorithms. The presence of large numbers of civilians, multiple heat sources, and visual obstacles reduces the reliability of automated reconnaissance. According to MIT researchers, facial recognition systems used in densely populated urban environments have up to 35% identification errors.

Furthermore, the use of predictive behavioral analysis based on ethnicity or religion, which is common in the region, raises serious ethical concerns. This approach risks exacerbating community tensions by unfairly targeting certain populations.

Middle Eastern states are accelerating the militarization of AI

Among the most advanced states, Israel remains at the forefront. With a technology industry accounting for around 18% of its GDP and close cooperation between the military and start-ups, Israel launched operations in 2021 that make extensive use of military AI.

During Operation “Guardian of the Walls”, Israel used systems such as Lavender to analyze and prioritize human targets. Sources such as +972 Magazine reveal that the “Where’s Daddy?” app led to strikes against civilian residences, sometimes based on weak presumption criteria.

Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates are also investing heavily. In 2023, Riyadh spent nearly $20 billion on AI, according to Gulf Intelligence. These countries use AI for internal surveillance and cybersecurity, and are developing loitering munitions capable of patrolling autonomously.

In contrast, Iran, hit by severe economic sanctions, is relying on military AI to modernize its missiles and drones. The upgraded versions of the Shahed-136 drone, used in Ukraine, are evidence of this strategy. The integration of trajectory optimization and target identification algorithms increases their range and lethality.

Finally, Turkey remains behind in advanced AI, focusing its efforts on the production of conventional drones. Although it exports its UAVs on a massive scale, particularly to Africa and Central Asia, Ankara invests little in fundamental AI research.

The geopolitical and military consequences of military AI in the Middle East

The spread of military AI in the region is profoundly altering the strategic balance. Autonomous systems lower the human and political costs of intervention, making war more frequent and protracted.

The proliferation of AI technologies to non-state actors is also a cause for concern. Cheap drones, armed with basic algorithms, are already available on regional black markets. Experience shows that around 30% of drones used by armed groups in the Middle East since 2020 have been assembled locally with commercially imported components.

This risks neutralizing the initial technological advantage of states, making conflicts more unpredictable and violent. Furthermore, without robust regulatory mechanisms, targeting errors could increase civilian suffering and further undermine humanitarian norms.

Finally, the absence of a credible regional oversight body exacerbates this dynamic. The 2023 Austrian motion for international regulation of military AI was overwhelmingly rejected by the major powers in the region. The lack of commitment at the local level indicates that only bilateral agreements or small groupings could slow the escalation.

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