The NGAD program, a cornerstone of US air strategy, faces major financial and strategic challenges under the Trump administration.

The Next Generation Air Dominance (NGAD) program aims to develop a sixth-generation aircraft to replace the F-22 Raptor. Planned to strengthen the US Air Force’s capabilities in the face of emerging threats, particularly in the Asia-Pacific region, the program faces financial and strategic obstacles. Estimated at between $250 and $300 million per unit, or three times the cost of an F-35, NGAD’s development has been suspended for re-evaluation. Under the Trump administration, a crucial decision is expected to balance innovation, costs and future threats.

The financial stakes: a cost that exceeds forecasts

The estimated cost of the NGAD, between 250 and 300 million euros per aircraft, has provoked intense debate within the US Air Force. By comparison, the F-35, considered a state-of-the-art aircraft, costs around €90 million per unit. This difference calls into question the viability of the project, especially in a context of military budgets already under pressure.

In response to this challenge, the US Air Force has paused the award of the contract until 2024, opting for a complete revision of strategy. The aim is to strike a balance between technological innovation and cost control. Alternatives, such as greater use of drones or extending the life of current aircraft like the F-22, are also being studied.

The budgetary implications go beyond the NGAD project. With an annual military budget of almost $800 billion, the United States must justify every expenditure in the face of competing priorities, particularly in the space and cyber domains.

A strategic pivot in the face of Asia-Pacific threats

The NGAD is designed as a direct response to the challenges posed by China’s growing power in the Asia-Pacific region. Featuring advanced technologies, this aircraft could operate in contested environments, thanks to an adaptive engine and enhanced detection capability.

However, the evolving threats in this region require careful consideration. General Dave Allvin stressed the importance of integrating the NGAD into a “family of systems”, including autonomous UAVs such as the Collaborative Combat Aircraft (CCA) and a future aerial refueling tanker (NGAS). This combined approach would optimize resources and better meet operational needs.

In 2022, China unveiled significant advances with its J-20 stealth aircraft, demonstrating a growing ability to challenge American air superiority. The NGAD thus represents a key element in maintaining the strategic balance in this crucial region.

The growing importance of autonomous platforms

Drones and other unmanned platforms occupy a central place in strategic debates. Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy, influential advisors to the Trump administration, have argued for increased investment in drones at the expense of manned fighters.

Drones, like the Hermes 900 used by Israel, offer significant advantages: lower costs, the ability to operate without direct human risk, and adaptability. However, the transition to a fully autonomous fleet remains complex. General Allvin stressed the importance of human-machine interaction, asserting that war remains a “human endeavor”.

Currently, drones account for around 40% of US Air Force reconnaissance missions, but their integration into large-scale combat missions still requires technological advances and doctrinal adaptation.

Strategic and political consequences

The postponement of the NGAD decision reflects important political stakes. Under the Trump administration, the program could be redirected to meet specific budgetary or strategic priorities.

In addition, the pause in NGAD development offers an opportunity to reassess the real needs of the US Air Force. Experts, such as Representative Rob Wittman, point out that hasty decisions could result in platforms that are ill-suited to future threats.

This debate also highlights the need for greater collaboration between the branches of the military and Congress to define a clear vision of the capabilities required for the decades to come.

The NGAD embodies the technological and strategic ambitions of the United States for the decades to come. However, its high cost and the uncertainties surrounding future threats call for careful consideration. In a changing geopolitical context, balancing innovation, operational efficiency and budgetary control remains the main challenge for this ambitious program. The Trump administration’s decision in 2025 will be decisive for the future of American air supremacy.

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