Analysis of the strategic implications of the first North Korean military delegation to Russia and the defence agreements between the two countries.

For the first time, an elite North Korean military delegation, led by Kim Geum Chol, is visiting Russia. The visit follows the signing of a strategic partnership agreement between Vladimir Putin and Kim Jong Un, including mutual military assistance. This cooperation is a source of concern for both Seoul and Washington, not least because of possible exchanges of arms and technology.

An elite North Korean military delegation in Russia

For the first time, a North Korean military delegation, led by Kim Geum Chol, President of Kim Il Sung Military University, is visiting Russia. This visit marks a significant step forward in military relations between North Korea and Russia, strengthening their strategic cooperation. Kim Il Sung Military University is the main training institution for North Korea’s military elite, playing a crucial role in developing officers’ strategic and tactical skills.

The delegation is expected to take part in exchanges of military training and doctrine, which could include joint exercises, discussions on defence strategies and the modernisation of the armed forces. These interactions not only enhance the military capabilities of both countries, but also strengthen their alliance in the face of common adversaries.

The Comprehensive Strategic Partnership Treaty

On 19 June, Vladimir Putin and Kim Jong Un signed a comprehensive strategic partnership treaty, including a mutual defence clause. This agreement stipulates that each party will provide immediate military assistance in the event of armed aggression against the other. This military alliance is seen as a response to the pressure exerted by the United States and its allies in the Asia-Pacific region.

The agreement strengthens the geopolitical position of the two nations by enabling them to coordinate their military efforts and pool their resources. For example, Russia could benefit from North Korean expertise in ballistic missiles, while North Korea could gain access to advanced Russian military technologies. This cooperation is worrying for Western countries, as it could lead to an increase in the military capabilities of both nations.

Geopolitical consequences and international reactions

The announcement of this military cooperation provoked strong reactions from Seoul and Washington. South Korean and American officials fear that this alliance will strengthen the military capabilities of both countries, particularly in terms of missile technology and nuclear weapons. South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol has warned Moscow of the negative consequences this alliance could have on economic relations between Russia and South Korea.

NATO, represented by Jens Stoltenberg, stressed the importance of democracies speaking with one voice in the face of increasing cohesion between authoritarian states. This statement reflects the fear that alliances between authoritarian regimes could further destabilise international security.

Economic and military stakes for North Korea

In exchange for its military support for Russia, North Korea could ask for advanced technologies to improve its long-range missiles and nuclear capabilities. Kurt Campbell, US Assistant Secretary of State, has expressed concern about these potential exchanges, which could include missile guidance systems and advanced propulsion technologies.

The participation of North Korean military construction and engineering forces in reconstruction work in the occupied Donetsk oblast is scheduled for July 2024. This initiative could serve to strengthen the North Korean presence in Ukraine and consolidate the Russian-North Korean alliance.

Impact on regional and global security

The military alliance between Russia and North Korea poses significant challenges to regional security in North-East Asia and to global stability. This cooperation could lead to an arms race in the region, prompting neighbouring countries to strengthen their own military capabilities. For example, Japan and South Korea could accelerate their missile defence programmes and increase their military spending.

In addition, the alliance between Moscow and Pyongyang could complicate diplomatic efforts to denuclearise the Korean peninsula. Negotiations on denuclearisation could be compromised by increased technological and military cooperation between North Korea and Russia.

The visit of the North Korean military delegation to Russia and the signing of the Comprehensive Strategic Partnership Treaty mark a new phase in relations between the two countries. This increased military cooperation raises major concerns for regional and global security. Western countries, particularly the United States and its allies in the Asia-Pacific, will need to monitor this alliance closely and strengthen their own defence measures to counter any threats posed by this Russian-North Korean collaboration.

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