Russia aims to launch 2,600 satellites by 2036, but technological and economic challenges make this an ambitious target.

Russia has announced its intention to put around 2,600 satellites into orbit by 2036, with a particular focus on the communications satellites of the Sfera project. This project aims to compete with the American and British constellations, but major challenges remain. Economic sanctions, limited current production capacity and dependence on imported components pose significant obstacles. Despite significant investment, Roscosmos’ objective seems ambitious given current technological and industrial realities.

Roscosmos’ ambitious goal

In 2024, Russia announced an ambitious plan to place around 2,600 satellites in orbit by 2036. This objective, presented by Yury Borisov, Director of the Russian space agency Roscosmos, aims to strengthen Russia’s position in the field of communications and space observation. The Sfera project, in particular, aims to deploy communications satellites similar to the Starlink and OneWeb constellations. Initially, the project planned to launch more than 600 satellites, but budgetary constraints have reduced this target to 360 satellites, although Borisov claims that the real need is for at least 1,200 satellites.

Budgetary and industrial challenges

Financing the project is a major challenge. The Russian government has approved a budget of 180 billion roubles (around €2 billion) for the launch of 162 satellites. However, to date, only 95 billion roubles have been allocated. A strategic plan for the development of the communications sector up to 2035 also provides for the launch of six geostationary satellites. Sergei Prokhorov, head of the Sfera project, has indicated that funds are available for four of these satellites.

Limited production capacity

Despite Roscosmos’ ambition to produce at least 250 satellites a year, Russia’s current capacity is much more limited. At present, Russia produces only around 15 satellites a year, although the theoretical production capacity is 40 satellites a year. According to Pavel Luzin, space policy expert at the Center for European Policy Analysis, this production target is unrealistic given current constraints.

Dependence on imported components

Another major obstacle is Russia’s dependence on imported electronic components. All the Russian satellites launched since 2022 have been manufactured using Western components purchased before the imposition of the first economic sanctions following the invasion of Ukraine in 2014. Luzin points out that, although Russia can still find components on the world market to produce a few satellites, it does not have the resources to manufacture hundreds every year. Economic sanctions exacerbate this problem, limiting access to the critical technologies needed to produce advanced satellites.

Satellite production priorities

Faced with these challenges, Russia has adjusted its satellite production priorities, focusing on dual-use satellites, i.e. those that serve both military and civilian purposes. Priorities include the Razdan optical reconnaissance satellite, a radar satellite for marine reconnaissance as part of the Pion-NKS constellation, as well as two radar satellites, Obzor-R and Kondor, and several Glonass communications satellites. Denis Banchenko, a former Roscosmos employee, said that most of the planned satellites will be used primarily for military purposes, such as intelligence, surveillance, navigation and communications.

Consequences and implications

Russia’s goal of deploying 2,600 satellites by 2036 has important implications. If successful, this project could significantly enhance Russia’s communications and surveillance capabilities, both civil and military. However, budgetary, industrial and technological challenges make this objective difficult to achieve. Dependence on imported components, exacerbated by economic sanctions, is a major obstacle. What’s more, current production capacity is insufficient to meet the annual target of 250 satellites.

Russia will have to invest massively in developing its domestic production capacity and find solutions to overcome the constraints imposed by the sanctions. International partnerships, potentially with countries not aligned with the sanctions, could also play a crucial role. In addition, the focus on dual-use satellites reflects the strategic importance Russia attaches to integrating civil and military capabilities into its space programme.

Future prospects

The future of the Russian space programme will depend on Roscosmos’ ability to overcome the current challenges. Investment in research and development, workforce training and technological innovation will be key to achieving the ambitious targets set. In addition, Russia’s ability to navigate the geopolitical landscape and establish strategic partnerships will also influence the success of the Sfera project.

While the goal of 2,600 satellites in orbit by 2036 is ambitious, it is not unachievable. With strategic planning, appropriate investment and adaptation to international constraints, Russia can make progress towards this goal. However, achieving this plan will require sustained effort and flexibility to adapt to technological and geopolitical developments.

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