Faced with losses in Ukraine, Russia plans to rebuild its army by 2030, despite economic sanctions and a shortage of personnel.

Russia, faced with massive losses in Ukraine, plans to rebuild its armed forces by 2030. Challenges include a shortage of personnel, high costs and sanctions that curb arms production. Despite this, Moscow has mobilized an army of 500,000 soldiers, including mercenaries from North Korea, while relying on imports of military equipment. The current strategy is to hold on to the occupied territories in Ukraine, hoping for a reduction in Western support for Kyiv.

Massive losses and obsolete equipment

Since the invasion of Ukraine, Russian forces have suffered considerable human and material losses. By 2023, over 2,000 modern tanks, including T-72s and T-90s, had been destroyed. These losses were offset by older tanks, notably T-55s dating from the 1950s, ill-suited to combat against German Leopard 2s or American M1 Abrams.

The Russian troops mobilized also suffered from precarious conditions. Many were deployed with obsolete equipment, such as steel helmets dating back to the Second World War. Inadequate training of soldiers led to increased casualties and widespread demotivation. These factors limited the effectiveness of Russian counter-offensives against better-equipped and trained Ukrainian forces.

Ambitious but costly reconstruction plans

To rebuild its forces, Russia plans to add 600,000 soldiers and modernize its military equipment by 2030. However, this plan faces several challenges:

• A high cost: the budget needed to recruit, train and equip this new army exceeds Moscow’s current financial capabilities, compounded by international sanctions.
• A shortage of recruits: emigration, combined with losses in Ukraine, has reduced the number of men available for military service.
• Dependence on conscripts: young soldiers, initially enlisted for one year, are forced to remain in service for several years, increasing their discontent.

Despite this, Russia has mobilized a force of 500,000 soldiers, including 12,000 North Korean mercenaries, thanks to food exchange agreements and technical assistance for Pyongyang’s nuclear programs.

The impact of sanctions on military production

Economic sanctions imposed by the West have sharply reduced Russia’s military production capacity. Restrictions on electronic components have slowed the manufacture of modern tanks, combat aircraft and missiles. To circumvent these limitations, Moscow has turned to parallel markets and Chinese suppliers, obtaining inferior components.

These difficulties are reflected in delays in the delivery of new equipment. For example, annual production of modern tanks is estimated at 20% of its pre-sanctions capacity, forcing Russia to use obsolete armored vehicles on the Ukrainian front. This dependence on second-hand equipment directly affects the effectiveness of troops in the field.

A long-term strategy against NATO

Moscow’s current strategy is to maintain control over the occupied territories in Ukraine, while hoping that Western support will wane. However, far from reducing their aid, NATO countries have stepped up their arms deliveries. Poland, for example, plans to acquire 1,000 South Korean K2 tanks, surpassing the size of many European armored forces by 2030.

This situation puts Russia in a strategic bind. While increasing its defensive capabilities, it is unable to keep pace with Western modernization. Analysts believe that, without a significant change in the balance of power, Moscow could be forced into a prolonged defensive position.

Rebuilding Russia’s armed forces by 2030 reflects a major strategic challenge. Between losses in Ukraine, economic sanctions and personnel shortages, Moscow is struggling to re-establish its military capability. While the current strategy is to prolong the conflict in the hope of weakening the West, economic and logistical realities may limit these ambitions. Faced with a strengthened NATO, Russia will have to rethink its priorities to avoid a prolonged decline in its military influence.

We offer a fighter jet rides in France – come fly with us! And you can even take the controls!