Technical analysis of Russian disinformation operations, including the Doppelganger project, and their real effects on Western societies.

Russia has stepped up its disinformation operations with projects such as Doppelganger, aimed at manipulating public opinion in Western countries such as the USA, Germany and France. Although these campaigns have generated extensive media coverage, the actual results appear limited, with spin-offs well below Russian expectations. The project has produced 700 fake sites and thousands of documents, but its direct impact on public opinion remains marginal. This article explores the methods, objectives and results of this strategy, while detailing lessons for better countering disinformation.

1. The aims of Russian disinformation through Doppelganger

The Doppelganger project embodies a modern Russian disinformation strategy, inspired by the methods employed during the Cold War. The main aim is to manipulate Western public opinion by cloning news websites and disseminating fake articles and videos. In 2023 and 2024, over 700 fake sites were created in countries such as Germany, France and the USA. The campaigns focus on polarizing topics such as elections and international conflicts.

The strategy relies primarily on exploiting social networks: between May and July 2022, Social Design Agency (SDA), the Russian company at the heart of the project, generated over 6,000 publications and comments on sites such as Facebook, Instagram and Telegram. One of the objectives was to reduce US President Joe Biden’s approval rating by 10% and influence the 2024 elections.

Consequences: although Doppelganger’s ambitions were considerable, the results fell short of expectations. The direct impact of these campaigns on the elections or on public opinion remains uncertain, showing an overestimation of the capabilities of Russian disinformation.

2. Techniques used to manipulate information

Russia uses sophisticated methods to sow confusion. Doppelganger relies mainly on counterfeiting techniques: creation of fake sites, fake documents and fake conversations. These methods are derived from Cold War tactics, but integrated with modern technologies, such as the modification of screenshots or the use of instant messaging platforms.

Internal SDA documents reveal the scale of the effort. For example, a February 2024 proposal detailed the use of fake quotes, fake interviews and even the creation of fabricated audio leaks to manipulate public opinion in Ukraine and the West. Influential players were targeted to amplify these false reports, often with inconclusive results.

Consequences: Despite these efforts, new technologies have not turned disinformation campaigns into resounding successes. In fact, social networks and media outlets are increasingly equipped to detect and neutralize such attempts.

3. The real impact on Western public opinion

Although disinformation is a serious threat, the documents revealed show that Doppelganger’s real impact has been relatively limited. In 2024, the SDA estimated that its websites recorded around 800,000 views, over 60% of which were in Germany and France. However, these figures are modest compared with the project’s ambitions.

Reports show that the vast majority of links to fake articles on sites such as Bild or the Daily Mail generated very little engagement. For example, of the 24,375 links generated to falsified Bild articles, only a small proportion reached a significant audience. On the other hand, the project’s media exposure far exceeded its direct impact, enabling the SDA to claim misleading success.

Consequences: In reality, it was the media coverage of the misinformation campaigns that amplified the project’s impact. The Western media often treated these subjects with a certain anxiety, unwittingly contributing to the spread of the perception of a threat.

4. Lessons to be learned in the fight against disinformation

Disinformation campaigns, while intensive, reveal several weaknesses that can be exploited to counter them. Social networks, in particular Facebook and Instagram, have played a crucial role in detecting and removing accounts associated with Doppelganger. As of 2022, Meta has removed over 200 accounts linked to this campaign. This demonstrates the effectiveness of collaboration between technology companies and governments in limiting the reach of disinformation campaigns.

In addition, the internal control measures of platforms and governments show that the fight against disinformation can be strengthened by improving transparency and responsiveness. The publication of internal documents by agencies such as the SDA helps to expose the weaknesses of these operations.

Consequences: To strengthen the fight against disinformation, governments and companies need to focus more on technically removing the infrastructures used to spread these campaigns, while publicly exposing those responsible to reduce their funding.

5. The importance of careful media coverage

The documents revealed highlight an essential truth: excessive exposure of disinformation campaigns can sometimes reinforce these efforts. SDA operators used Western media coverage as proof of the effectiveness of their operations, inflating their real impact to impress their sponsors. The project even took on the name Doppelganger following a media revelation, showing just how much exposure can become an asset for disinformers.

Consequences: Responsible and measured media coverage is essential to avoid unwittingly serving the interests of disinformation campaigns. Media and researchers must avoid overestimating the impact of these efforts, and concentrate on concrete ways of neutralizing them.

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