Turkey’s refusal to take part in the Ramstein Flag 24 exercise raises questions about its future within NATO and its geopolitical ambitions.

Turkey recently refused to take part in the Ramstein Flag 24 air exercise organized by NATO in Greece. This decision highlights ongoing tensions with its Western allies and raises questions about its commitment to the Atlantic Alliance. Between territorial disputes with Greece, exclusion from the Eastern Mediterranean Gas Forum, and the rapid modernization of its defense industry, Turkey seems to be redefining its geopolitical position. Is the country considering a rapprochement with emerging powers such as the BRICS? This strategic repositioning could have major consequences for the balance of power in the region and beyond.

Turkey’s withdrawal from Ramstein flag 24: strategic implications

Turkey’s refusal to take part in the Ramstein Flag 24 exercise, scheduled to take place in Greece under the aegis of NATO, sends a strong signal to its partners. This exercise aims to improve the interoperability of member countries’ air forces, by simulating complex operations involving combat aircraft, air defense systems and electronic warfare capabilities. Turkey, a NATO member since 1952, decided not to take part, citing disputes over the Athens Flight Information Region (FIR).

The Athens FIR covers part of the Aegean Sea airspace, an area Turkey has contested for decades. Ankara refuses to submit its military flight plans to the Greek authorities, arguing that this infringes its sovereignty. This situation has led to numerous air incidents, with reciprocal airspace violations and interceptions of military aircraft. The refusal to participate in Ramstein Flag 24 exacerbates these tensions and calls into question NATO’s ability to maintain operational cohesion between its members.

This withdrawal is not insignificant. It comes at a time when Turkey is seeking to assert its strategic independence. By 2020, Ankara had already carried out military operations in Syria and Libya without coordinating with NATO. In addition, the purchase of S-400 air defense systems from Russia for 2.5 billion euros has raised concerns in the United States and led to economic sanctions. The importance of these decisions reflects Turkey’s desire to free itself from the constraints imposed by its traditional alliances.

Exclusion from the Mediterranean Gas Forum: isolation or strategy?

Turkey is also excluded from the Eastern Mediterranean Gas Forum (EMGF), an organization founded in 2019 bringing together countries such as France, Cyprus, Greece, Israel, Egypt, Jordan, Italy and Palestine. This forum aims to coordinate the exploitation of gas deposits estimated at over 3,500 billion cubic meters in the region. The absence of Turkey, a major player in the Eastern Mediterranean, underlines its growing isolation.

Ankara contests the maritime delimitations established by international law, notably around Cyprus and the Greek islands. Turkey has deployed drill ships, escorted by frigates, in exclusive economic zones claimed by Greece and Cyprus. These actions have provoked diplomatic and military tensions, with incidents involving warships from both sides.

Exclusion from the forum deprives Turkey of significant economic opportunities. Planned pipelines such as the EastMed Pipeline, with a planned length of 1,900 km and an estimated cost of 6 billion euros, could divert gas transit away from Turkish territory. This energy isolation could have major economic consequences, prompting Ankara to look for alternatives.

Military modernization: towards strategic autonomy

Faced with these challenges, Turkey is investing massively in its Defense Industrial and Technological Base (DITB). The Turkish defense budget is set to rise to 20.4 billion euros by 2022, with a growing share devoted to research and development. Arms exports exceeded 3 billion euros in 2021, an increase of 30% on the previous year.

The development of the Bayraktar TB2 drone, produced by the Baykar company, illustrates this success. With an endurance of 27 hours and an operational altitude of 7,600 meters, it has been successfully used in Syria, Libya and Nagorno-Karabakh. Over 200 units have been produced, and the drone has been exported to a dozen countries, including Ukraine, Qatar and Azerbaijan.

Turkey is also developing its own fifth-generation fighter, the TF-X, in collaboration with international partners. This program, estimated at 10 billion euros, aims to reduce dependence on American F-35 aircraft, from which Turkey was excluded in 2019. The emphasis on technological autonomy strengthens Turkey’s ability to conduct independent operations, without relying on logistical or technological support from NATO.

Closer ties with the BRICS: a new geopolitical direction

Turkey is exploring the possibility of strengthening its relations with the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa), a grouping that represents around 42% of the world’s population and 23% of global GDP. Although not a member, Turkey has expressed an interest in increased cooperation, particularly in the economic and technological fields.

Trade between Turkey and the BRICS countries has increased, reaching almost 60 billion euros in 2021. Russia is a key partner, supplying over 45% of the natural gas consumed in Turkey. In addition, China has become Turkey’s second-largest trading partner, with investments in infrastructure such as the Middle Corridor rail project, linking China to Europe via Turkey.

Alignment with the BRICS could offer Turkey opportunities to diversify its economic and political partnerships. However, this choice entails risks, not least in terms of potential sanctions from the United States and the European Union. Moreover, Turkey would have to navigate between the divergent interests of the BRICS members, which could complicate its diplomatic position.

Towards a strategic redefinition or a break with the West?

The central question is whether Turkey is seeking to break with the West or simply redefine its place on the international stage. Recent actions suggest a desire to multiply partnerships and no longer depend exclusively on NATO or the European Union. This diversification strategy aims to strengthen Ankara’s independence while maximizing its national interests.

However, Turkey remains linked to the West in many ways. The European Union is its biggest trading partner, with trade set to exceed 140 billion euros by 2021. More than 5 million Turks live in Europe, strengthening human and cultural ties. On the military front, despite tensions, Turkey benefits from NATO infrastructure and information sharing.

It is likely that Turkey will seek to balance its relations, maintaining ties with the West while developing new partnerships. This posture would enable it to benefit from the advantages of both sides. However, this balancing act is a delicate one, requiring skilful diplomacy to avoid conflicts of interest.

Prospects for Turkey and NATO

Turkey’s refusal to participate in Ramstein Flag 24 and other actions are prompting NATO to rethink its relations with Ankara. The question of mutual trust arises, especially when Turkey’s national interests seem to diverge from the Alliance’s objectives. NATO’s cohesion could be put to the test if these divergences become more pronounced.

On the other hand, NATO benefits from Turkey’s strategic position, as it controls the Bosphorus and Dardanelles straits, essential access points between the Black Sea and the Mediterranean. The Incirlik air base in Turkey is also a major asset for operations in the Middle East. Losing Turkish cooperation would have significant consequences for the Alliance.

It is therefore in the mutual interest of Turkey and NATO to find common ground. Dialogue mechanisms could be strengthened to address the concerns of both parties. Diplomacy will be essential to avoid a rupture that could destabilize the region and weaken NATO’s position vis-à-vis other emerging powers.

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