Analysis of the strategic reasons behind Russian military overflights of the USA, Alaska and Europe, and their potential risks.

There are complex reasons for Russian military overflights over countries such as the United States, Alaska and Northern Europe. They are linked to strategic considerations, including surveillance, show of force and response to perceived aggressive actions by NATO. These missions carry risks, including military responses, increasing the likelihood of tensions. These manoeuvres are also a way for Russia to test the air defence capabilities of opposing countries. The consequences of these actions are manifold, including growing geopolitical instability in regions already under tension.

1 Strategic objectives of Russian overflights

Russia pursues several objectives by carrying out military overflights over sensitive areas. These flights, often carried out by Tupolev Tu-95 strategic bombers or Su-27 fighters, are designed to test the air defence capabilities of opposing countries. In 2022, for example, Russian aircraft were intercepted more than 60 times in European airspace. This type of incident enables Russia to gather information on the reaction time and detection technologies of opposing forces.

These missions are also designed to maintain constant pressure on NATO member states. By demonstrating their presence in regions such as the Arctic, Northern Europe or even the areas close to Alaska, Russian forces are sending out a clear political message, reiterating their ability to operate in remote areas. The use of strategic bombers and surveillance aircraft is also a way of signalling that Russia is ready to respond to any perceived threat.

2. Provocation in a context of geopolitical tension

Russian military overflights can also be considered as acts of provocation. Overflights of Alaska and adjacent areas in the USA are often interpreted as a show of force. In 2023, the Russian air force conducted 10 flights close to American airspace, prompting an immediate response from US Air Force F-22 fighter jets. These missions come at a time when relations between Russia and the United States are already strained, particularly due to the conflict in Ukraine and economic sanctions.

These provocations increase the risk of accidental escalation, as each interception of a Russian aircraft could turn out badly. The airspace over Northern Europe is particularly sensitive, due to Russia’s proximity to countries such as Norway, Finland and Sweden. Russian military manoeuvres are often seen as a response to NATO-led military exercises, reinforcing mutual mistrust.

3. Strategic and military consequences

Russian military overflights have major strategic consequences. On the one hand, they force the countries concerned to strengthen their air defence capabilities, which entails significant costs. For example, Sweden and Finland have invested several billion euros in upgrading their radar and acquiring Gripen and F-35 fighter jets. In response to Russia’s actions, NATO has stepped up its military exercises in areas close to the Russian border, further increasing tensions.

These actions also affect regional stability. Each overflight incident, even without direct confrontation, contributes to an increase in tensions. The risk of miscalculation is high, especially in a climate of mistrust and lack of communication between the armed forces on both sides. The United States and NATO are actively preparing to respond to these provocations, increasing the potential for an accidental armed confrontation. These overflights are also part of a wider drive to militarise the Arctic, a strategic area rich in natural resources.

4. The impact on international relations

These military manoeuvres also influence diplomatic relations between Russia and the countries concerned. Each overflight reinforces the image of an aggressive Russia, seeking to test the limits of Western patience. This leads to increased economic sanctions against Moscow, as well as calls for increased military budgets within the European Union. In 2022, the European Union’s military budget increased by 8% to more than €214 billion.

This growing militarisation is leading to a clearer division between the geopolitical blocs. Russia is turning more towards alliances with countries such as China, while the NATO member states are stepping up their defence cooperation. The direct consequence is an arms race that increases the risk of conflict, even if neither side wants direct confrontation. Russia’s actions, in particular these overflights, are therefore contributing to increased international instability.

5. Conclusion and risk analysis

Russian military overflights over Alaska, the United States and Northern Europe have complex strategic motivations, ranging from demonstration of force to intelligence gathering. These actions, although calculated, increase the risk of military incidents and unintended confrontations. The Western response is increased militarisation, fuelling a cycle of provocation and retaliation. As long as geopolitical tensions between Russia and the West persist, these overflights will continue to be a key element of Russian strategy. However, the risk of accidental escalation remains real, and each overflight incident could potentially trigger a more serious response.

Want to fly a fighter jet ? Get in touch.